Novices Hurdle
Method:
If the horse is weight penalized and unless he has a claiming jockey
(claiming 5lb or more and preferably a leader on form in the past 14 days)
to off-set most/all of the penalty, consider him for a place.
Otherwise go with unpenalized form leader preferably with a strong jockey on recent form.
Spoilers:
Look for the horse with the best form in the last 3 races.
Watch out for horses with high handicap ratings. At times they can overcome the profile above.
Handicap Hurdle
Method
Start with the weights. Work out the midpoint between the top-weight and the bottom-weight. There is a sweet spot weight
range (or SSWR) starting 4lbs below the midpoint and going up to 3lbs above the midpoint. So, for instance, if bottom-weight is
10-0 and top-weight is 12-0, the midpoint is 11-0 and the SSWR is 10-10 to 11-3.
Shortlist horses in the SSWR and add the top-weight to the list.
In the list, only consider distance winners or lightly-handicapped horses (or handicap debutants).
From those remaining, go with the horse with the best form in its last 3 races.
Handicap Chase
Method
The Papillon method has the best record in Handicap Chases. This takes into account all of the
following:-
Form (last 3 races), Course and Distance record, Trainer's form, Jockey's form, Going ability, Speed figures, Age and
Weight of last year's winner.
Hunters Chase
Key: Class, defined as follows:
Number of previous wins
Number of previous Chase wins
Wins in top class events, preferably Listed races
But there are what ifs.
eg What if the #wins/#chase wins pick has only won class 3 and another has won multiple class 2?
[Chelt 4/5/18] What if horse a has most wins (3) but no chase wins and horses b,c & d have one chase win
each (and in some cases more experience)? Horse a wins.
For further analysis, follow link below.
Novices Handicap Chase
Method
Look for the trainers with the best strike rate in the last 14 days.
If the form leading trainers are close (within 5%), lean towards the one whose horse has the best form in their last 3 races from the contending trainers.
Novices Handicap Hurdle
Keys:
Leading (15%+ strike rate) course trainers (TFC/sr)backed up by:
Primarily weight (SSWR including midpoint floating weight shift if required)
Then Possibly
Form (9PFF adjusted down if no LTO in the short-list)
Juvenile Maiden Hurdle
Keys:
Leading (15%+ strike rate) course trainers (TFC/sr)backed up by:
Current trainerform (highest ranking TFN/sr amongst top course trainers).
And/or
Leading jockeys (for course and/or current jockeyform).
If any trainer clearly leads by 10+ points at this course? Back him.
SpoilersTesting 4/1/22: If a horse with superior flat hcap ratings is transitioning from flat, has at least one race completion over jumps, can possibly overcomeprofile above.
Novices Chase
Method
Look for a horse:
With at least 2 previous wins.
With a win at this or a compatable course.
Eliminate all others.
Keep on shortlist if..
The horse has won at or within 10% of this distance.
The horse has won at this going.
The horse has run at least 20-21 times.
Eliminate all others.
If multiple choices remain:
Eliminate horses 20+ points below others in handicap ratings.
Eliminate any horse whose jockey is not in top overall table.