Start with the weights. Work out the midpoint between the top-weight and the bottom-weight. There is a sweet spot weight range (or SSWR) starting 4lbs below the midpoint and going up to 3lbs above the midpoint. So, for instance, if bottom-weight is 10-0 and top-weight is 12-0, the midpoint is 11-0 and the SSWR is 10-10 to 11-3.
Shortlist horses in the SSWR and add the top-weight to the list.
From these favour course and distance winners, going specialists and horses well-treated by the handicapper.
[24/4/18 cl4 2m7f Soft]
Old profile matches the NH general profile 0 (with very slight twist on claiming weights) and was solid as a rock to produce the winner here today.
[24/4/18 cl4 3m Soft]
It would have been better to focus on TFC/sr >15% rather than TFN (as suggested by general profile). Doing that today and using 9PFF as the decider from the shortlist, would have delivered a nice winner.
Shortlist horses from trainers leading on strike rate for the course or in general over the last 14 days. Also consider trainers leading on volume of winsd in the last 14 days or here at the course.
From the shortlist, favour horses with jockeys similarly ranked.
[24/4/18 cl5 2m1.5f Soft]
A theory I am testing, that seller profiles seem to apply to this racetype and that namely its all about looking for the best horse on historical handicap rating, preferably that is running below that historical mark today, has succeeded once, failed once in the past and though its hard to be 100% sure here today (due to lack of all the correct data), the winner was the clear leader on official handicap ratings so there is something there.
First time profiled here so going with the general. Did it work? Yes it did when pick was odds-on favourite in a field of two and took it start to finish with ease.
Look for a horse:
With at least 2 previous wins. With a win at a compatable course (see list below). Eliminate all others.
The horse has won at or within 10% of this distance.
The horse has won at this going.
The horse has run at least 20-21 times.
Eliminate all others.
If multiple choices remain:
Eliminate horses 20+ points below others in handicap ratings.
Eliminate any horse whose jockey is not in top overall table.
Look for trainers leading in more than one category from:
Volume of wins at the course
Volume of wins in the last 14 days
Strike rate at the course
Strike rate in the last 14 days
If there is more than one candidate, go with the jockey with the stronger record at the course.