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Hereford (BR)


397 Date HerefordFeatures

Maiden Hurdle

[29/1/18 2m5.5f (Class 4) (4yo+) Soft] First chance to profile here and MH general profile failed to deliver albeit selection ran a good race to finish 4th under champion jockey.
Alternative method preferred here: Shortlist all speedsters within 35 points of speed leader. From them go with the best TF overall, probably favouring TFC then TFN. On this occasion, that approach would have supplied first and second in order.

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398 Date HerefordFeatures

Hunters Chase

[29/1/18 2m5f (Class 5) (5yo+) Soft] First time profiled here so going with the profile featured in the Hunters Chase focus page. This kind of played true except that the pick with the most wins (and chase wins) including a class 1 struggled to get into the race, clearly having an off day, leaving the next best on volume of wins/chase wins and only multiple (3) class 2 winner to take this.

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399 Date HerefordFeatures

Beginners Chase

2m3f G/F Jun (CLASS 4) (5yo+) : Always look for evidence of racing in much bigger prizemoney events at top class venues (Ascot, Cheltenham, Aintree to some extent). Two horses aone had that here in a big field. One was favorite and a distance winner. The other was BF and that won at 3/1 (so also somewhat favored in market). Validated 29/1/18

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400 Date HerefordFeatures

Juvenile Maiden Hurdle

[10/4/18 2m Heavy]
Juvenile or Maiden? First iteration to my knowledge of a race of this type. Perhaps it doesn't matter much as the profiles we have for each so far are in fact very similar. Methods for both Juvenile (BR) and Maiden (general) are almost identical in both cases recommending shortlisting TFC/sr then looking to TFN/sr picks within the list. Three trainers were >20% TFC here but one was more than 10 points clear on TFC/sr with 40%. His horse lead start to finish and won this easily ignoring non-existent TFN/sr (both the other candidates had good TFN/sr but proved irrelevant on the day)

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401 Date HerefordFeatures

Handicap Hurdle

[16/10/18]
Comparing picks from old profile and general profile today. Did either get it right? Not really but in circumstance of very poor form in SSWR (best being a 3rd place 3 races ago ie 1 point), skipping to best overall jockey in SSWR would point to near-dominator and current champ vying for 100th win of season, Richard Johnson, who took it.
In 2nd running today, both general and local nailed it.
In 3rd running, form only slightly better in SSWR but best form (with previous 2nd) horse also had 2nd best overall jockey(and clear leader on current JF)- that horse won. Best JFC candidate (best overall jockey) in adjusted SSWR rode the 2nd home. The old local profile adjusted for circs gets the verdict.

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402 Date HerefordFeatures

Novices Hurdle

[16/10/18]
Comparing picks from old profile and general profile today. Did either get it right?
Was a matter of interpretation but I'd put the old local profile ahead: Winner had best form and was from top (40%) TFC/sr yard so should have been automatic pick. I was put off by weight penalty (and market) which old profile warned against. Ignore that warning! Best combination of form and trainer (pref. course trainer) seems key.

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403 Date HerefordFeatures

Novices Handicap Chase

[16/10/18]
Comparing picks from old profile and general profile today. Did either get it right?
For the third (perhaps even the fith) time today the old local profile wins over the general as the TFC/sr leader (albeit by only 1% point at 21%) took this over a TFN/sr of 83% believe it or not. I'd say though that form played a part as the 21% TFC/sr also had form of 112 whilst the 20% TFC/sr had form of P42. Even another goof TFC/sr candidate (17%) with equally poor form failed to register. So strong TFC/sr supported by strong 9PFF would seem to be the order of the day.

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404 Date HerefordFeatures

Novices Handicap Hurdle

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405 Date HerefordFeatures

Handicap Chase

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